When revolutions happen, not everyone who helps lead them can govern afterward. Revolution and government demand two very different skill sets, and history shows that revolutionaries are often the first to be pushed aside once a new order forms. Governing is slow, technical work; it is far easier to stand outside the system and rally against it.
Today, we’re checking in with members of the election team to get their thoughts on the 2025 elections. We’ll share both our personal views and what our model shows, noting that not every race currently has a modeled outcome. We’ll also take a moment to discuss what different margins really mean in context.
We’ll start with the Virginia statewide races, then move to New York City, California’s Proposition 50, and finish with New Jersey.
Over the past few months, mid-decade redistricting has quietly become one of the biggest political stories in America. From coast to coast, legislatures and courts are revisiting congressional maps, each side trying to lock in structural advantages before the 2026 midterms.
The question is simple: where is redistricting heading — and what does it mean for the balance of power in Washington?
Today is September 20, 2025, which means we’re just 45 days from the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey. Both contests carry outsized importance, testing whether the Republican coalition can come out in off-year elections and whether Democrats can consolidate control in states that have shifted right in the outcome of the 2024 election. Here’s where things stand as of today, according to both our model and our instincts.
Politics is a complex machine that often boils down to who you know. A multitude of factors shape the game, from donor networks to personal loyalties. This article dives into the high-stakes world of political endorsements, focusing on recent moves by Donald J. Trump, and outlines our America First endorsement strategy for 2026, grounded in pragmatism to secure victories for the nation.
Yesterday, the progressives made their voices very loud. Zohran Mamdani is all but guaranteed to be the Democratic nominee for the 2025 New York City mayoral election. Many Democrats are hailing this as the start of the Democratic Tea Party. What does that actually mean, and do Democrats actually want that to happen?
For many, they are seeing for the first time a new nationalism that has surged in the past few months, though it has always been present in some form for the past few decades. This nationalism is core to Trump’s appeal, and the left correctly sees it as a threat to their vast social projects...
Welcome back to Your Weekly America First Insight! Man, what a week—politics, primaries, and missile volleys got everyone talking. Let’s jump right in and break down the big stories from an America First angle. Thanks for riding with us!
The main story that dominated this week was all about Elon and Immigration. So we will be discussing those and the small stories that are also spread throughout the week. Thank you for checking out Your Weekly America First Insight!
If you were on X over the past week, especially the last 24 hours, you would have seen the intense discussion surrounding the One Big Beautiful Bill. However, much of the conversation has been clouded by misinformation, dishonesty, and a lack of understanding. This article explains why the One Big Beautiful Bill is, indeed, a significant and well-crafted piece of legislation.
Welcome to Your Weekly America First Insight for June 2, 2025, where we analyze the latest political shifts, economic developments, and electoral updates shaping the America First agenda. This week, we cover Democratic strategies, robust economic growth, immigration enforcement, cultural shifts, and early 2028 presidential race dynamics.
Trump’s foreign policy has undoubtedly made America stronger abroad and turned America from the world’s money bank into a respected power. His administration has renegotiated trade deals that favored America’s adversaries, as well as made new allies, like El Salvador for mutual benefit. At the very least, America is feared once again, just as it was after its ascendancy following the Second World War.
Welcome to the inaugural edition of Your Weekly America First Insight, a new series delivering a concise roundup of the past week’s political developments. Published every Monday for members and Tuesday for non-members, this column will also provide updates on significant shifts in our Election Model. This week, we cover the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill, key policy announcements, and emerging electoral trends, reflecting the pulse of the America First agenda.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating has returned to positive territory, according to our Polling Aggregate, rebounding from a dip in early April 2025 following his controversial "Liberation Day" tariff announcement. This recovery, also reflected in other major polling aggregates, has sparked questions among liberals about the causes and among conservatives about its sustainability.
For the first time in decades, a Republican President is championing a tax increase on the ultra-wealthy. President Donald Trump’s tax plan proposes raising the top marginal tax rate from 37% to 39.6% for individuals earning $2.5 million or more and couples earning $5 million or more...
With the recent news about Brian Kemp announcing his decline to run for Senate in 2026, the GOP's prospects of expanding the majority have shrunken a lot...
Yesterday, the Florida State Legislature made a regrettable decision that undermined President Trump’s agenda and disappointed the people of Florida...
Birthright citizenship has long been a point of contention in the United States...
When Donald J. Trump lost the 2020 election, it felt like a death knell for the American right...
The American people have long been under attack by entrenched institutions...
Libertarians and economically right-wing individuals have often criticized President Trump’s proposal to implement tariffs...
Donald J. Trump was elected just weeks ago, and all eyes are now on his cabinet appointments...
Foreign policy is a complex field where success depends on understanding both allies and adversaries...
Our official America First Insight model currently forecasts a 306-232 outcome...
The overwhelming majority of Americans are now realizing that the 2024 election is noteworthy...
Growing up in South Dakota, I never celebrated Columbus Day...
It’s been a year and a half since I wrote my endorsement for former President Donald John Trump...
In 2022, at the desperate urging of President Joe Biden, the Democratic controlled House of Representatives...
On November 21st, 1620, 41 men signed what was then called the Agreement Between the Settlers of New Plymouth...
In 1908, Israel Zangwill’s play *The Melting Pot* popularized a metaphor for American society...
A brief article on what races to watch today as the Florida Primaries occur...
What is the most important reason candidates are capable of winning elections...
During the waning hours of the Biden reelection campaign, they had a message...
It’s only July, and the 2024 election has already shaped up to be one of the wildest...