Today is September 20, 2025, which means we’re just 45 days from the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey. Both contests carry outsized importance, testing whether the Republican coalition can come out in off-year elections and whether Democrats can consolidate control in states that have shifted right in the outcome of the 2024 election. Here’s where things stand as of today, according to both our model and our instincts.

Virginia Governor

The 2025 Virginia Governor’s race pits former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (D) against current Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R). Republicans shocked the political world in 2021 when Glenn Youngkin flipped this Biden +10 state by two points, powered by a sharp campaign, a weak Democratic nominee, and damaging local scandals. The question now: can the GOP repeat that performance?

This time, the conditions look very different:

• Campaign quality: Earle-Sears stumbled early but has recently steadied her message. Still, her campaign hasn’t matched the discipline or energy of Youngkin’s 2021 effort.
• Candidate quality: Unlike Terry McAuliffe four years ago, Spanberger is not a recycled, uninspiring nominee. She is a strong and broadly appealing Democrat.
• Scandals: Minor local flare-ups exist, but nothing close to the storm of 2021.

Our model has Spanberger leading by 7.2 points, with a 95% chance of victory. Solid Virginia polling is sparse, but she has consistently hovered around the 50% mark. Coupled with the state’s 2024 baseline of Harris +5.8, a Democratic win in the D+7 range makes sense.

There are some caveats. Early voting data shows Republicans slightly ahead of their 2024 pace in a few deep-red counties (already at 70% of their presidential-year turnout on Day 1), while Democratic counties are closer to 40%. These numbers are ordinary at this stage, but could suggest a GOP enthusiasm edge. Some point to the aftermath of Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a factor in driving early conservative turnout. Still, we’re talking about just a few thousand votes out of nearly three million expected, far too little to shift the overall picture or draw an accurate prediction.

Northern Virginia remains the Democrats’ firewall. The region’s dense, highly engaged electorate, dominated by federal workers and suburban professionals deeply hostile to Trumpism, makes upsets very difficult.

Bottom line: Our model’s projection of D+7 feels right. Republicans may close the gap slightly if turnout breaks their way, but the fundamentals point strongly toward a Spanberger victory and a Democratic flip of the Governor’s mansion.

New Jersey Governor

The 2025 New Jersey Governor’s race features Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill (D) against former GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli (R). Unlike in Virginia, where Democrats are trending upward, Sherrill has plateaued. She peaked at around 51% at the start of the race in polling averages but now sits closer to 48%, while Ciattarelli has crept upward.

Our baseline model initially had New Jersey at a D+8 race (assuming generic candidates). But the most recent update, run just yesterday, shifted it to D+6.8. That’s not where Sherrill wants to be with the debates still to come.

Ciattarelli has proven he can compete here. In 2021, he pulled New Jersey down to just D+3, in what had been a Biden +16 state. That was actually a larger swing than Youngkin managed in Virginia. Since then, New Jersey itself has shifted rightward; Harris only carried it by six points in 2024.

Democrats still retain the registration advantage however, since 2024, the state has gained 40,000+ new Republican voters, while Democratic registration fell slightly. Net gain: about 46,000 voters. For perspective, the raw margin in 2021 was just 84,000 votes. Another sign that Sherrill’s cushion in the state may be sparse.

Right now, most polling suggests a D+6 to D+7 result, which would be in line with the model. But our instincts suggest this race will be closer. A D+3 outcome feels more realistic — a reflection of both Sherrill’s stall-out and Ciattarelli’s ability to activate the new Trump coalition in a traditionally blue state. Early voting hasn’t started here yet, so enthusiasm signals are still missing, but debates and final GOTV efforts will matter more in this race than in Virginia.

Bottom line: Our model gives Ciattarelli about a 5% chance of victory, similar to Republicans’ odds in Virginia. But unlike Virginia, New Jersey looks and feels more competitive. Sherrill remains favored, but Ciattarelli has the momentum to keep this race tight down the stretch.

Final Takeaway

Both states are leaning Democratic, but in different ways. In Virginia, Spanberger looks poised to lock down a decisive win, with little evidence the GOP can replicate 2021. In New Jersey, Sherrill is still the favorite, but Ciattarelli has shown before that he can punch above his weight, and our gut says he’ll do it again. Yet, both races are nowhere near done or settled. While the Democrats are outspending massively, today Earle-Sears put down a massive ad buy, and the GOP loves buying advertisements at the last second.

If you’re looking to care about a race this November, New Jersey is it. Virginia will likely be over rather quickly, however, we will check back in towards the end of October and see where the races are.