The 2024 Election: Trump’s Momentum Builds—Expert Opinions Weigh In

As the 2024 election draws near, anticipation is mounting across the country. Here at America First Insight, our latest forecast projects a strong outlook for Donald Trump, giving him a near 70% chance of victory. This optimistic forecast is driven by several key factors that favor the former president, including a series of polls that paint a favorable picture.

A Trump victory in the popular vote—a feat that has eluded him before—seems not only possible but increasingly likely. Gallup's Party-ID, historically accurate in both the 2020 and 2022 cycles, alongside other prominent pollsters, suggests the popular vote will be extremely tight. While I personally predict a 312-226 Electoral College result with Michigan as the closest battleground, I remain uncertain about the final popular vote tally.

Our official America First Insight model currently forecasts a 306-232 outcome, with a slight edge for Harris in the popular vote. But to offer a fuller picture, I reached out to a number of high-profile political commentators for their insights. Below are their thoughts on the 2024 race:

Election Wizard
A prominent political commentator on X, Election Wizard provides “Populist News” and election analysis. His take on the 2024 election is optimistic for Trump:
"Multiple data points show momentum for Trump. It’s remarkable that Trump leads in all swing states this close to the election—something we didn’t see in 2016 or 2020. If this momentum holds, Trump could reach 312 electoral votes, with potential surprises in states like Maine, New Hampshire, Virginia, or even New Mexico. The popular vote will be tight, but Trump could win it by a point or more."

Mark Mitchell – Head Pollster, Rasmussen Reports
Known for his in-depth polling, Mitchell (Rasmussen, rated B- on our scorecard) believes Trump is well-positioned for both the popular vote and the Electoral College:
"Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Trump should outperform his previous popular vote results, winning by 1-2 points. Swing state polling looks close but favors Trump, particularly in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. For the Electoral College, my projections are: Low - 271, Probable - 297, High - 325 for Trump."

Gavin Mario Wax – President, New York Young Republican Club
Wax sees 2024 as a historic win for Trump:
"We’re looking at a decisive Trump victory in both the Electoral College and the popular vote. If we account for the polling biases seen in 2016 and 2020, Trump is well beyond both the margin of error and the margin of fraud in key states."

David Chapman – Political Analyst and Author
Chapman anticipates a tight race but leans toward a Trump win:
"I foresee Trump securing 312 electoral votes. If the polling is spot on and Harris is up by 1.4 points in the RCP aggregate, then Trump could replicate or improve upon his 2016 performance. A slight polling miss, however, could swing additional states like Maine, Minnesota, or even New Mexico and Virginia into Trump’s column. The popular vote will be close, possibly within half a point."

Eric Daugherty – Assistant News Director, Florida Voice News
Daugherty offers a slightly more conservative take but still leans towards a Trump win:
"I'm projecting a 312-226 Trump victory, though Nevada could make it 306-232. In the popular vote, I expect Harris to lead by 0.5-1.5 points. Early voting data points to strong enthusiasm among Republicans, which is a good sign for Trump."

Tho Bishop – Content Director, Mises Institute
Bishop provides a deeper analysis of voter behavior:
"This race comes down to whether voters prioritize material well-being or ideological loyalty. Early voting turnout suggests Trump is in a good spot to recapture Rust Belt states and possibly Nevada. If trends hold, Trump has a real shot at the popular vote as well."

Robert Barnes – High-Profile Lawyer
Barnes emphasizes the fundamentals that favor Trump:
"Voters are unhappy with the economy, immigration, and foreign policy. This favors Trump. His realignment of the working class across race, region, and generation gives him an edge in the Electoral College. If Trump wins the popular vote, expect an Electoral College landslide." When asked about his Electoral College number he responded with "312".

As these expert opinions demonstrate, optimism is high for Trump, with many projecting strong electoral results. With just 15 days left in the race, we’re entering the crucial early voting season where momentum is key. If there’s ever a time to be hopeful, it’s now. If you have gotten this far, make sure you have a plan to vote, or just go vote early bring everyone you can. These types of victories only happen if WE come out and vote!