With the recent news about Brian Kemp announcing his decline to run for Senate in 2026, the GOP's prospects of expanding the majority have shrunken a lot. Former Governor Sununu in New Hampshire also has declined to run for the Senate, which was another major blow in expanding the majority. So, where does this leave the GOP in terms of the 2026 elections? Well things in this moment are not entirely bleak and the odds of expanding the majority still seem like a very real possibility.

Let us start with New Hampshire. Current Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen announced she wouldn’t run for reelection. The current frontrunner on the GOP side is Scott Brown, the former GOP Senator of Massachusetts. While on the Democratic side, current Congressman Chris Pappas has declared and will almost certainly be the nominee for the Democratic side. Chris Pappas is most certainly the strongest candidate for the Democrats, and Scott Brown is the strongest candidate for the Republicans, who haven’t declined to run. Our current model has the New Hampshire Senate race being won by the Democrats about 65% of the time, with an average of a 2-point victory. This could most certainly be a bigger win for the democrats, as the Liberal Boomers will be on super-duper turnout levels. However, since the 2024 election, GOP registration in New Hampshire has continued to trend towards Republicans. This is a race that the Democrats will likely win; however, with the right candidate, the Democrats will be forced to invest and be involved here, which is a great thing.

Moving on over to Maine, Incumbent Senator Susan Collins is almost certainly running. As first reported by America First Insight, a deal was made between Susan Collins and Democratic Congressman Jared Golden. Said deal was that if Susan Collins doesn’t get a primary challenger from the right, then Jared Golden will not run against Susan Collins, possibly going for the governor's seat instead. However, with the recent news of Angus King’s (Independent Senator of Maine) son running for governor, Golden will stay in the House. This means that Susan Collins' biggest possible opponents will not be running against her, likely keeping her as the Sole GOP New England GOP Senator. Our model right now has Susan Collins winning 81% of the time, with a roughly 4-point margin, as polarization still begins to catch up with long-term Senators.

Onto North Carolina, where Republican Senator Thom Tillis will be seeking his 3rd term. First, Tillis has to be able to make it through the GOP Primary. Senator Tillis has caused some issues with the GOP base originally by attempting to stop Pete Hegseth from being confirmed, and now attempting to block Ed Martin from being the US Attorney for DC. Assuming Tillis makes it through the primary, which is likely unless Trump decides against Tillis, Tillis remains the favorite against most North Carolina opponents. The only declared candidate is Former Congressman Wiley Nicket, who lost his reelection in 2024. The biggest opponent of Tillis would be if former Governor of the State, Roy Cooper, ran for the Senate seat, which remains to be seen. As of now, Tillis is winning against a Generic Democrat 70% of the time, with a roughly 2-point win.

Now onto the first of the two most important races for the 2026 Senate election. Michigan. Senator Gary Peters announced his retirement from the Senate early this year. Senator Peters was up for reelection in 2020, and despite the state going to Biden by 2.8 points, Peters only won by 1.6 points, failing to get 50% of the vote. Senator Peters faced John James, a (now congressman) man with very little political experience. Senator Peters was determined to be one of the weakest Democratic Incumbents, but with his retirement and the GOP likely running Mike Rogers, who nearly won in 2024. This race could be a very tough hold for democrats. There are also two more factors running against Democrats here. First off there is serious potential for a “Democrat Tea Party” with many progressives being very upset at the Democratic establishment, and people such as AOC, David Hogg, and Bernie Sanders all seeming to suggest they will be very active in primaries and attempt their best to primary out or win open seats with extreme progressives. Of th declared candidates on the Democratic side, there is Haley Stevens a pretty generic Democrat, Mallory McMorrow a very feminist womens right, member of the Michigan State Senate, in which is a the majority whip and, Abdul El-Sayed, a Muslim Progressive who manged to win about 30% in the 2018 Democratic Primary for governor. This is setting up a rather harsh battle for the open seat, where the Democrats can easily end up nominating a progressive who may scare off the suburban votes the Democrats have begun relying on. Another issue is that in the governor's race, the Detroit Mayor, Mike Duggan, is running as an independent for governor. This means that the GOP, which will likely nominate John James, will be pushing extraordinarily hard on getting turnout for what could be an easy gubernatorial flip. This, combined with possible extreme dissatisfaction from Detriot democrats, could lead to a slight dem turnout and thus harm the democrats' chances here too. As of right this second, the GOP actually manages to win the Michigan Senate Race about 56% of the time, with an average margin of R+0.8. This will change, but the Democrats will be focusing very much on this open race.

The most important race of the 2026 Senate races comes down to Georgia. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is running for reelection, and the GOP was dealt a strong blow when current Governor Brian Kemp decided against running for the Senate. Thankfully, the GOP also received news that MTG will not be running for the Senate, leaving the most likely options being Earl “Buddy” Carter, who has already declared, and Mike Collins, who has hinted at running for the Senate. This race is easily the most toss-up race in the nation. Ossoff is not particularly great electorally, and in all likelihood would have lost the 2020 runoff, had Mitch McConnell not blocked the Stimulus Checks. Ossoff also had the benefit of running side by side with Warnock, who boosted the black turnout, which is key to Democrats winning in Georgia. Ossoff will have access to fewer black voters in exchange for a bluer South Atlanta. He and his opponent will likely get the most amount of funding, and it will be a serious slugfest between the GA Democratic Party and the GA GOP. The real question will be, can the rural turnout be red enough or high enough to stop Ossoff? With someone like Carter or Collins, in my opinion, it's possible. The Georgia GOP will also have the advantage of pushing the suburbs out to vote for a Georgia GOP Governor, which we can expect a solid recruit from there as well. Currently, our model has the GOP winning the Georgia Senate race 50.24% of the time, and statistically, the margin of vote is equal. This race has changed drastically from when Kemp was running, but the GOP certainly isn’t out of here. A key point will be that the GOP needs to win this race in November. If this goes to a December or January runoff, I would have to almost guarentee that Ossoff would win that, as the GOP ability to turnout will be crippled.

All and all, our model shows the GOP expanding the majority as the current favorite, with the status quo being in 2nd place. Ultimately, this will depend on money (which Democrats have been doing terribly on fundraising since the shutdown of USAID) and which candidates end up clinching certain nominations. Most primaries are looking pretty shut and dry, but places like North Carolina may change drastically depending on the Democrats' next moves.