September 10th was the 2nd General Election debate of the 2024 election or the first debate between Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Like every single debate, the question lingers on, Who won the debate? The answer is either both candidates: anticlimactic answer but that is the truth. Both candidates got the win depending on the metrics. In all polls, Kamala Harris “won” the debate, but Donald Trump won independents, and gained on the most important issues, making his win far more significant.

Let us start off by looking at the debate itself. I think the debate was somewhat reminiscent of 2016, maybe 2020, a clear 3-on-1. In the CNN debate against Joe Biden, the moderators were very good, they asked fair questions to both candidates, both candidates were given time to respond, cut off when they went above two minutes, were not allowed to interrupt the other one, well-timed breaks, it was good. The ABC debate was not, Trump was thrown some ridiculous questions, while Harris was softballed, for example,

“Your (Donald Trump) plan is what she calls is essentially a national sales tax, your proposal calls for tariffs, as you pointed out here, foreign imports across the board, you recently said you might double your plan, imposing tariffs up to 20% on goods coming into this country, as you know many economists, say with tariffs at that level costs are then passed onto the consumer, Vice President Harris has argued that will mean higher prices on gas, food, clothing, medication, arguing it costs the typical family nearly $4000 a year, do you believe Americans can afford higher prices because of tariffs?”

Vs

“The Biden Administration did keep a number of the Trump tariffs in place, how do you respond?”

The moderators framed many questions aggressively against Trump, and that is not the only hostility the moderators were engaged in. The ABC moderators frequently fact-checked only Donald Trump, while allowing Harris to openly lie. For example, Harris not only brought up the long-time debunk “Good People on Both Sides” hoax, in which she was not questioned about it at all. She also claimed that a Trump-led IVF ban existed. This is legitimately just a lie, not even just recontextualizing something in a terrible manner, just an actual lie. The debate continued on like this the entire evening. It is also notable that Harris’s microphone was unmuted a couple times, when the rules clearly dictated they should have been muted. This debate was terribly handled. Not to mention when Trump brought up his attempted assassination, the moderators instantly cut him off and went to break. The whole ordeal was very reminiscent to 2016 debates, or Chris Wallace in the 2020 debates. The CNN debate was far better handled this year.

Now, who won the debate? Harris. By all accounts and polls, it's Harris who won the debate in a traditional sense. However, the voters seem to be smart enough to separate “winning” in the traditional sense, to what actually matters. When FOX News tracked how GOP voters, DEM voters, and Independents felt during the debate, Independents were basically in line with GOP voters during most of the time. Trafalgar found Harris won the debate, but Trump’s margin slightly improved. Reuters had 10 undecided voters, after the debate they had 6 Trump voters, 3 Harris voters, and 1 undecided. CNN had a watch group that said Harris won the debate with 63% of the debate, Trump improved his margin on issues such as the economy, and immigration. So while Harris won the debate in a very traditional sense, Trump won the debate where it counts. He greatly improved his standing with Independents, and he blocked Harris from making major ground. On all polling that has occurred since the debate, most of the changes have been within MoE. Sometimes a point towards Harris, sometimes towards Trump.

So what does this mean? Overall, I think Trump’s performance with Independents and the issues at hand will play a bigger impact rather than Harris winning the performance art of debating. I still think at the end of the day, the race will be a Trump victory, he is seen as a change candidate, and the electoral makeup of key swing states are more favorable to Trump. Massive gains in GOP voter registration, continued strong polling, and a strong focus on chasing ballots in key states. Currently, no further debates between Harris and Trump are planned, there is still the Vice President Debate between J.D. Vance and Tim Walz. That will likely have little to no impact, but it will be interesting to see if J.D. Vance can rally some of his haters to his side.