Weighted averages account for pollster grade, sample size, population type, reported margin of error and recency.

For each day, AFI uses only the most recent eligible poll from each pollster. Weighted methods apply exponential age decay (30-day decay scale, roughly 21-day half-life); unweighted mode does not apply those weighting factors. Likely-voter polls receive a 1.2× population factor, registered-voter polls 1×, and all-adult polls 0.8× in weighted modes.

For general elections only, AFI requires B or higher once two distinct B-or-higher pollsters have published qualifying polls in the final 30 days. Otherwise all grades count. Primaries have no automatic B-grade restriction. Premium members may select a manual override.

Poll dots represent individual surveys. The margin-of-error shading reflects an average of the surveys' reported margins of error, not a statistical confidence interval for the combined average. Poll archive filters below do not change the chart.