It’s only July, and the 2024 election has already shaped up to be one of the wildest in American history—and perhaps even in world history. After a dismal midterm performance that shook confidence in him, former President Trump has defied expectations. This cycle has truly been unprecedented, in many ways. The race started off with the first former president to run for reelection after a break in presidency for the first time since 1892. President Trump, who has barely ever led any polls while being a politicians, is suddenly leading a vast majority of national polls. He has gone from one a very consistent 40-43 approval rating, to a 45-49 approval rating. The incumbent president has suddenly turned his party upside down by not running for relelection less than a month away from his nomination. By all accounts, this race is done, and now we are going to go fight and win the Popular Vote.

The Republican candidate has not won the Popular Vote since George Bush's 2004 victory, often trailing significantly, as evidenced by Joe Biden’s 7 million-vote lead in 2020. Yet, polling now shows Trump ahead in the Popular Vote—a monumental shift. In 2020, Biden’s 7 million-vote lead translated to a narrow 40,000-vote edge in several swing states. With California and New York solidly blue, a Democrat needs about a three-to-four point lead in the Popular Vote to have a chance at the Electoral College. Key states like Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin leaned about four points right of the national average in 2020. Biden won the Popular Vote by 4.5%, but these states were decided by less than 1 point. If the national sentiment shifts just one point to the right, Trump would secure the 270 electoral votes needed. However, national polls now show Trump leading by one to two points, with early Trump vs. Harris polls showing him up by 2-5 points. This represents a seven-point shift to the right, likely removing Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada from play and shifting Texas and North Carolina from their 2020 battleground status to out-of-the-question for Democrats. Such a shift could make Minnesota, Maine, and Virginia more competitive than the traditionally competitive states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Why am I so confident that Donald J. Trump will become not only the 45th but also the 47th President? The answer is straightforward: We already know what wins and what loses elections for the Democrats. In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the election largely because Obama voters abandoned the Democratic Party, coupled with her widespread unlikability. In 2020, Joe Biden managed to reverse this trend slightly. His favorable approval rating and ability to attract just enough White working-class voters and older boomers secured his victory. He achieved this with two key elements: his moderate stance within the Democratic Party and his "Scranton Joe" persona, which resonated well with voters. However, this persona and his approval ratings plummeted once he took office, hitting as low as 35% despite media support. So, between Clinton and Biden, who is Harris more similar to?

Both

Kamala Harris possesses the poor qualities of both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. Her approval ratings are abysmal, often lower than Clinton's. She has inherited the challenges left by Joe Biden, yet lacks the ability to present a moderate facade. This is the critical difference between her and Biden's electability. Biden could convincingly portray himself as a moderate, regardless of his governance. Harris, on the other hand, has a lackluster track record in her own elections. She barely scraped by in 2010, a red wave year, while her California counterparts won by double digits. Her 2016 Senate run was similarly underwhelming. Unlike her predecessors who won the White House through broad appeal, Harris has struggled to connect with voters. While she has a dedicated following among a small group of hyper-online progressives, this base doesn’t translate into the widespread support needed for a presidential win. She is a California progressive running in an election where she needs to win the Rust Belt. Is this possible? No.

Harris has always struggled to gain electoral traction. In 2020, she had to drop out early because she lacked support, even within her own party. Now, she’s been crowned the nominee without receiving a single vote this primary cycle. Would she have won if there had been a primary? Probably, but this still means her campaign is months behind in infrastructure. It took Harris around four days to get their first, lackluster advertisement up and running. Meanwhile, the Trump campaign had ads out within hours during this crucial period. First impressions matter most, and currently, Trump is shaping the narrative. This is another key factor in my declaration: the Trump campaign has been elite this cycle.

Donald J. Trump’s 2024 cycle has been his best yet. Starting with the primaries, he made strategic moves that secured him a strong victory in Iowa, despite minimal resource allocation. When key moments arrived, he rose to the occasion, turning incidents like his mugshot, indictments, and a guilty verdict in what many consider a kangaroo court into significant political advantages. He revamped the RNC, appointing his daughter and the former North Carolina GOP chair, both excellent choices. The Republican National Convention was also a success, offering something for everyone in the party. Despite online skepticism about Trump’s preparedness for the debates, he forced the incumbent nominee to drop out, resulting in the selection of the least electable Democrat possible. When the announcement was made, many on the right speculated that the Trump campaign was caught off guard and unprepared, suggesting internal turmoil and misguided strategies. Yet, none of that happened. Instead, the Trump campaign has proven to be elite and well-prepared at every turn.

The Trump campaign was incredibly swift and efficient, launching ads within an hour and having Senate candidates follow up with their own ads within a few days. They have ruthlessly attacked Harris on her poor record and ensured that JD Vance had multiple campaign stops across the nation. This campaign, along with the entire GOP apparatus, was clearly prepared for this moment. In contrast, the Democrats seem more caught off guard. Several moderates have refrained from endorsing Harris, and Obama has remained notably quiet throughout the process. The Democrats’ ads are slow to roll out, and their only notable advantage appears to be questionable massive fundraising numbers from progressives. Harris lacks the experience, personality, and policies needed to win. Simply put, she doesn't have what it takes to secure victory.

In conclusion, the 2024 election appears increasingly favorable for Donald J. Trump. With rising favorability and a campaign operating at peak efficiency, he seems poised to become the next President of the United States. The key question now is whether Trump can achieve a historic victory by surpassing 50% of the national vote—a milestone not reached by a Republican in 20 years. If he succeeds, it will cement the MAGA movement as a formidable force within the GOP, potentially shaping its direction for the next four decades. However, this is not a time for complacency. I urge you to fight even harder. This is our opportunity to demonstrate that MAGA is a popular and powerful idea, showing that the progressive left is a minority. A Popular Vote victory is crucial to this effort. Double down, for this is the defining moment for the MAGA ideology, our movement, and a final triumph over those who have doubted us since 2016.