Hello readers!

Today, we’re checking in with members of the election team to get their thoughts on the 2025 elections. We’ll share both our personal views and what our model shows, noting that not every race currently has a modeled outcome. We’ll also take a moment to discuss what different margins really mean in context.

We’ll start with the Virginia statewide races, then move to New York City, California’s Proposition 50, and finish with New Jersey.

Virginia Statewide Races

Our model currently shows Abigail Spanberger winning the governorship by 6.8 points. We’ve consistently seen that Ghazala Hashmi, the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor, is trailing Spanberger by a few points. While this race isn’t modeled and we don’t have a complete aggregate, the available data suggests a likely margin of D+3 to D+5.

Since the texting scandal, Jay Jones has led in only one poll, though it’s notable that Jason Miyares has yet to hit 50 percent in any survey. Miyares currently leads the aggregate by R+2.9, giving Republicans a modest edge.

That said, if Spanberger’s margin expands to 8 or 9 points or higher, it’s unclear whether Miyares can rely on enough ticket-splitting to hold on. While we don’t have a model for this race, we’d estimate about a 55 percent chance of a Miyares victory, making it essentially a toss-up with a slight Republican lean.

Returning to the governor’s race, our model gives Spanberger roughly a 95 percent chance to win, with D+6.8 as the median outcome. Personally, I’d expect something closer to D+7 to D+8.

Virginia is particularly challenging as a bellwether this year because of the longest government shutdown in history, now past day 25. The shutdown’s impact on federal workers, a major part of Virginia’s electorate, has pushed polling toward double-digit Democratic leads in some surveys. That makes it difficult to use this race to determine broader national trends such as the 2026 generic ballot.

For Republicans, the goal is clear: winning two of the three statewide races (AG and lieutenant governor) would be a success, while winning just one would still be respectable. However, losing all three would be a significant setback.

Real American Politics’ take on Virginia:

Virginia is actually the state that probably offers the most predictive insight for 2026. New Jersey is important, but you could potentially argue that New Jersey is shifting so Republican it doesn’t represent the actual electorate. It’s a lame excuse, but it’s something you could argue.

What happens for the two races that are realistically winnable for Republicans (Attorney General and Lieutenant Governor) comes down in large part to what happens on the top of the ticket. In no scenario can Winsome Sears lose by 10 points or more if Republicans want a realistic chance at winning the AG race, which even in that scenario Miyares could potentially pull it off just for the fact that the Jay Jones scandal was so horrific that even in that lopsided of a race, Miyares could potentially win.

But if it’s within 10 points, Miyares probably wins, and anything within 7–8 points is probably a comfortable victory for Republicans.

As for Lieutenant Governor, it’s a much more difficult one to predict, as some polls have Reid outrunning Sears by landslide-like margins, but some polls have Reid only outrunning her by a couple of points. But average it all out, and Reid needs Sears to get within 7–8 points to have any sort of chance of winning.

Now, Virginia polls have Sears losing by a margin of 7.7, with the polls seemingly swinging heavily towards Spanberger in the last few days. That’s right on the edge of Republicans potentially winning two of the three statewide races in Virginia, or probably in trouble in those two other statewide races.

For Virginia, I would say if Republicans win two of the three statewide races and Sears loses by 5–6 points, that would be a sign of a red wave–style night. Even if Republicans only win the AG, keep the LG race extremely close, and Sears doesn’t get absolutely killed (7–9 point defeat, which is an improvement from Trump in 2020), it would still be an alright night considering Sears being a very weak candidate and this being a Democratic state.

Really the only way this can be a blue wave–style night is if Sears loses by 10+, Reid loses by a wide margin, and Miyares gets dragged down and actually loses to Jay Jones. Only in that scenario should it be considered a disaster for Republicans.

New York City Mayor

In the New York City mayoral race, Zohran Mamdani is projected to win by about 10 points, taking roughly 42.5 percent of the vote.

We’ve seen strong Brooklyn turnout along with a notable drop in voters under 30 compared to the Democratic primary. Both of these factors could slightly undercut Mamdani’s numbers, but his lead appears wide enough to remain comfortable.

Interestingly, the worse Mamdani performs, the better the GOP’s prospects look heading into 2026. That’s because Democrats are likely to model their national strategy after Mamdani’s, viewing his campaign as a success in a major city. This could spark a “Democratic Tea Party” movement, particularly in open-seat races.

Real American Politics’ take on the NYC mayoral race:

New York is really the only race of the night that doesn’t directly impact Republicans (well, outside of one scenario) and more dictating the potential future of the Democrat Party.

If Democrats are struggling badly in Virginia and New Jersey, but Mamdani (who has close to a 90–95% chance of winning) wins, or Mamdani just cracks 50%, it’s going to make the more Progressive Wing of the party very happy and give them free ammo for future elections.

Really, Republicans only have one scenario where you can deem it a successful night, and that’s if Sliwa shocks the entire world and beats Cuomo for second place. If that happens, Democrats have a future disaster brewing in the city — and really that whole region — that isn’t going away for a very long time.

California Proposition 50

Proposition 50, which addresses California’s redistricting process, appears almost certain to pass, and likely by a strong margin.

At best, Republicans might hope for it to underperform Harris 2024 or Newsom 2022, but even that seems optimistic. The more Proposition 50 outperforms Biden 2020, the clearer it becomes that Democrats can still energize lower-propensity voters. Notably, the GOP has barely contested this measure.

Real American Politics’ take:

Nothing much to say about California, other than asking two questions:

• A. Does it crack 60% of the vote?
• B. How long until the GOP files suits attempting to overturn the referendum?

New Jersey Governor

The New Jersey governor’s race has been one of the most interesting contests of the cycle.

On the GOP side, Jack Ciattarelli, the 2021 nominee, is back for another run. Democrats have nominated Mikie Sherrill, a sitting congresswoman.

Our model forecasts a D+2.8 margin, with Sherrill winning in 74 percent of simulations. That feels about right: a three-point Sherrill victory seems the most probable outcome.

For Republicans, the best-case scenario would be a narrow Ciattarelli win, while the worst-case would be a Sherrill victory of eight points or more. A result in the one- to three-point range would still be encouraging, suggesting Democrats are continuing to lose ground in the Garden State.

If the margin grows to six to eight points, it would indicate a clear Democratic advantage in the generic ballot. Anything beyond that would represent a major setback for the New Jersey GOP, especially given that the state backed Harris by roughly six points in 2024. A similar result should be the baseline for Democrats while a Republican occupies the White House.

Real American Politics’ take on New Jersey:

Democrats keep promoting this idea of a magical blue wave forming, but if the polling from New Jersey tells us anything about what could happen on Tuesday, it should be a massive warning for Democrats in 2026.

This is still a Democratic state, and the fact that Sherrill seems all but certain to underperform Harris despite it supposedly being an even more Democratic environment is a damning indictment of the state of the Democratic Party.

Now, to be clear, Sherrill can absolutely win New Jersey by a massive margin (and potentially win it by double digits), but really, would winning New Jersey by 7–8 points be seen as a massive victory? Considering the fact that New Jersey was a double-digit state for Democrats for decades and is suddenly shifting hard to the right, you would want to be winning by over 10–11 points if you’re the Democrats.

Now, Democrats and many “experts” have been latching onto the early voting numbers because they do suggest a more Democratic environment than 2024. But the issue with using that as the only metric is two things:

• A. That’s completely ignoring the fact that the early vote is looking significantly more Republican than in 2021 (and by a wide margin).
• B. We have no clue who these people are voting for.

Now, yes, you can infer who these people are supporting (and it’s a given these voters are Democrats), but one thing about this race that no one is mentioning is the fact that Jack Ciattarelli is getting an unusual amount of support from traditionally Democratic unions, groups, lawmakers, etc. And these groups and individuals absolutely have power and influence, and they’re pushing hard for Ciattarelli.

For New Jersey, a red wave–style night for Republicans would be winning the race outright, but even losing it by only 3–4 points would still be a good night for Republicans, as that’s an improvement from 2024 and basically the same result from 2021.

And realistically, it should only be considered a disastrous night if Ciattarelli crashes and burns and loses by 8–10 points (or more), as that would indicate a much more Democratic environment.